The US president's decision follows past diplomatic clashes, including aid cuts and criticism of the Pretoria's land policies, Goodenough Mashego has said

Leading political analyst Goodenough Mashego said US President Donald Trump's intention to skip the upcoming G20 Summit in South Africa should not be seen as a surprise.

"Donald Trump saying he is not going to come shouldn't surprise or even worry people. That was expected," Mashego told IOL News on Tuesday.

"At the ministerial-level G20 held in February, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio also refused to attend."

However, Mashego emphasised that political absences do not equate to a lack of US representation.

"Their absence as politicians does not mean there won't be US representation," he said. "The US still sees the G20 as an important platform to discuss global economic direction."

In February, IOL News reported that Rubio had cited diplomatic tensions over South Africa's controversial Expropriation Act as the reason for his non-attendance at the foreign ministers' meeting. 

This came after Trump issued an executive order halting foreign aid to South Africa, describing the Act as discriminatory toward the white minority.

In a repeat of history, Trump has expressed strong views on South Africa, this time on his Truth Social platform, hosted on X (formerly Twitter). 

He questioned the country's suitability as a G20 host, citing alleged land confiscations and attacks on white farmers.

"How could we be expected to go to South Africa for the very important G20 meeting when Land Confiscation and Genocide is the primary topic of conversation?" Trump posted. 

"They are taking the land of white farmers and then killing them and their families. Is this where we want to be for the G20? I don't think so!"

Trump's post also included a video of EFF leader Julius Malema debating land reform in Parliament, a clip the EFF believes was used to spread misleading narratives.

Despite Trump's remarks, Mashego said the US will not abandon the G20.

"They can't just wake up tomorrow and announce they're leaving the G20. All they can do is snub the host if they're unhappy. Right now, the issue is not only about land reform, it's about South Africa's case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ)," he said.

With the US set to host the next G20 Summit, Mashego added that it remains to be seen whether South Africa will reciprocate what Trump's administration did.

"They could respond by sending only low-level officials to the US summit. But maybe South Africa sees value in global cooperation and won't do that," he said.

Political analyst Professor Theo Neethling, of the Department of Political Studies and Governance at the University of the Free State, said Trump's absence is a blow to multilateralism.

"This is a setback for global multilateral cooperation. The US represents no less than 26% of the global economy. It's a significant loss when the head of state of the most powerful country in the world decides not to attend," Neethling said.

He insisted the summit must go on.

"Even though Trump's absence is a major setback, the G20 must continue. The show must go on," he said.

Neethling stressed that South Africa, as a relatively small economy, cannot afford to follow the US's lead.

"We need to remain part of global multilateral cooperation. Politically, economically, and diplomatically, we have too much to lose if we are not active participants in the G20," he said.

First published by IOL